Trump and Putin: A New Path to Peace?
The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, during a moment of dramatic escalation in the conflict in Ukraine, opens new scenarios for international diplomacy. His initial moves seem aimed at negotiating a resolution, while the global landscape is divided between those supporting a ceasefire and those seeking to obstruct any agreement. Europe, increasingly marginalized on the geopolitical stage, appears incapable of asserting an independent strategy, while Ukraine faces a military and political crisis that risks imminent collapse.
Trump’s Early Moves: Peace or Illusion?
From the moment of his electoral victory, Trump has sent clear signals: ending the war in Ukraine is a priority. The President-elect has emphasized the need for direct negotiations between the United States and Russia, which include guarantees for both sides. Trump’s rhetoric has been met with interest by Vladimir Putin, who expressed willingness to meet him to discuss a lasting solution. During a four-hour public Q&A session, Putin underscored that Russia is ready to negotiate but not for a temporary ceasefire: the goal is a stable agreement that consolidates the territories under Russian control and ensures Ukraine’s neutrality.
However, the outgoing Biden administration seems intent on undermining Trump’s path. Shortly after Trump’s victory, Biden authorized the use of British Storm Shadow missiles and ATACMS on Russian territory—an act that further escalated tensions without providing strategic benefits to Ukraine. Equally significant was the assassination of Russian General Kirillov, attributed to Ukrainian secret services with Anglo-American support, in a clear attempt to inflame the situation.
Viktor Orban: The Unexpected Statesman
A crucial role in this context is being played by Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister. Always opposed to Hungary’s direct involvement in the conflict, Orban has maintained a balanced policy: while his country is a NATO and EU member, it has not sent weapons to Ukraine or imposed sanctions on Russia. At the same time, Hungary has accepted over 700,000 Ukrainian refugees and preserved energy agreements with Moscow.
Recently, Orban visited Mar-a-Lago to discuss with Trump, followed by a series of diplomatic meetings in Moscow, Beijing, Kyiv, and Ankara. These meetings, while officially unrelated to a peace plan, suggest that Orban is working to create common ground to support Trump and Putin’s negotiations. His leadership emerges as that of a rare European statesman, capable of defending national interests while influencing a crisis of global magnitude.
Ukraine in Crisis: Zelensky’s Twilight
While discussions about negotiations progress, Ukraine’s front lines appear increasingly fragile. Volodymyr Zelensky recently admitted in an interview with Le Parisien that Ukraine no longer has the military capacity to reclaim lost territories, such as Crimea and Donbas. This acknowledgment comes after months of failed counteroffensives that have led to enormous human losses without tangible results. Ukrainian reports reveal that resistance capabilities are in steep decline: units consist of poorly trained personnel, and logistical forces, lacking combat experience, are being sent to the front.
Corruption and scandals within Ukraine’s armed forces worsen the situation. Funds earmarked for constructing fortifications have disappeared, and troop morale is at an all-time low. Meanwhile, Russia continues to advance, capturing key territories like Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, as Ukrainian defenses struggle to hold ground.
Politically isolated, Zelensky faces dwindling internal support. His presidential term has technically expired, but elections have been postponed due to the conflict. Polls show him losing to any rival, especially former Chief of Defense Staff Valerii Zaluzhnyi. This raises the possibility of a leadership change in Ukraine, with former President Petro Poroshenko potentially returning to the scene, leveraging his favorable ties with Trump.
Europe: A Giant with Feet of Clay
Europe, throughout this crisis, has become increasingly irrelevant. Despite declarations of solidarity with Kyiv, the European Union has failed to develop an autonomous strategy to resolve the crisis. Europe has simply followed the lead of the United States, accepting devastating economic and social costs without gaining any tangible benefits. Energy policies have led to skyrocketing production costs, rendering European goods less competitive on global markets.
NATO, for its part, continues to push for increased military spending, with proposals like that of Secretary-General Mark Rutte, suggesting cuts to welfare and healthcare to fund defense. However, this arms race appears incapable of strengthening Europe: rising costs of raw materials and production have reduced the ability to purchase modern weaponry, paradoxically leaving European armies weaker.
Trump and Putin: Strategic Convergence
Trump and Putin share interests that extend beyond Ukraine. For Trump, resolving the Ukrainian crisis would allow him to focus on other problematic areas, such as Iran, North Korea, and China. Putin, on the other hand, aims to consolidate the territories captured and secure guarantees of Ukraine’s neutrality. Both leaders understand that an agreement would not only end a devastating conflict but also strengthen their global positions.
However, the road to a deal is fraught with obstacles. The weeks leading up to Trump’s inauguration will be critical: the Biden administration might attempt extreme measures to sabotage negotiations, while on the Ukrainian front, the risk of a military collapse grows daily.
Conclusion
The outcome of the war in Ukraine will depend on the ability of Trump and Putin to reach an agreement, but also on the resilience of Ukraine’s political and military system. A collapse of Ukrainian forces, combined with Zelensky’s political isolation, could accelerate the process, but many uncertainties remain. Meanwhile, Europe risks remaining a mere spectator, paying the highest price for a war it neither avoided nor managed.
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