On November 18, 2024, the United States, France, and the United Kingdom authorized Ukraine to use long-range Atacms and Storm Shadow missiles against Russian targets. These systems, designed for deep strikes, were employed by Ukraine to hit strategic infrastructures in the Bryansk and Kursk regions.
However, the use of such advanced weaponry requires the assistance of Western technical personnel, signaling the direct involvement of Washington, London, and Paris. Moscow interpreted this as further evidence of NATO’s hostility, triggering a proportional response.
The Oreshnik Missile: A New Threat from the Kremlin
Moscow responded by deploying the hypersonic ballistic missile Oreshnik, a weapon combining extreme precision with the potential for nuclear payloads. The attack on an industrial plant in Dnipro demonstrated the system’s effectiveness, with the implicit message that Russia possesses armaments capable of evading any Western defense.
Although the missile was equipped with a conventional warhead for this attack, it was designed to carry nuclear payloads, posing a serious threat to European and global security. Russia also emphasized that future deployments would depend on the conduct of the United States and its allies.
Strategic Escalation: A U.S. Internal Political Move
The timing of the authorization for using Western missiles raises questions. Observers suggest the decision might have been driven not only by military considerations but also by internal U.S. political dynamics. The current Biden administration, defeated in recent midterm elections, may have aimed to complicate the incoming Trump administration, which has already declared its intention to negotiate peace with Russia.
This escalation comes at a time when the battlefield situation remains largely unchanged since September, with Ukrainian forces struggling to counter Russia’s advances.
Europe in the Crosshairs: Vulnerabilities and Growing Pressures
Russia appears to be exploiting Europe’s weaknesses, as the continent’s role in the war is increasingly seen as subordinate to American interests. Economic recession, rising energy costs, and social crises are putting European governments under strain, creating cracks in Western unity.
Russian attacks, including those with medium-range missiles like the Oreshnik, seem targeted not only at strategic objectives but also at psychological impact. The Russian ambassador to London openly accused the United Kingdom of being a key player in the conflict, claiming that British actions have hindered Russian plans since the war’s early stages.
Ukraine’s Difficult Balancing Act
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces an increasingly complex situation. After abandoning the possibility of a negotiated agreement in 2022, Ukraine has progressively lost its ability to independently influence the conflict’s dynamics.
Zelensky, who once promised to reclaim all occupied territories, now seems to adopt a more cautious tone. However, his internal and international credibility is waning, making it unlikely he will lead future negotiations. Russia appears to prefer direct dialogue with Washington, bypassing Kyiv.
A Growing Cost for the West
One of the main emerging issues is the sustainability of military support to Ukraine. Western and American arsenals, already under significant strain, are insufficient for a prolonged conflict. The weapons supplied to Ukraine include a wide range of models and systems, creating enormous logistical challenges.
Moreover, European industrial production is hampered by high energy costs and a shortage of raw materials, further limiting the ability to sustain the war effort. This reality is fueling growing social and political discontent in Europe, with the rise of movements critical of the war and alignment with the United States.
Conclusion: Toward a Redefinition of Geopolitical Balance
With Donald Trump’s imminent inauguration, the dynamics of the conflict could shift dramatically. Promises of direct negotiations with Russia and a likely reduction in American support to Ukraine leave Europe in a precarious position.
The war, which began as an attempt to weaken Russia, has instead highlighted Western vulnerabilities, raising questions about the future of global security and the role of the United States as the leader of the Western alliance.
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