Tags: Turkey, Bashar al-Assad, Eastern Mediterranean, Russia, Iran, Syrian Civil War, Geopolitics, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Islamist Militias, NATO, Cyprus, Tartus, Latakia, Middle East, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Western Embargo, Regional Strategy.
The sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has reshaped the geopolitical balance of the Eastern Mediterranean, crowning Turkey as the main winner. For Russia and Iran, however, this marks a significant defeat, as Assad was their trusted ally in the Middle East, supported for years with massive military efforts during Syria’s prolonged civil war.
In return for Moscow’s support, Syria had provided Russia with strategically vital naval and air bases, such as Tartus and Latakia, which ensured direct access to the Mediterranean Sea. This loss now jeopardizes a cornerstone of Russian influence in the Middle East.
Turkey’s Strategic Role
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan supported Syrian Islamist militias, despite the presence of elements linked to al-Nusra and groups with unclear ties to the Islamic State. This decision stems not only from Turkey’s traditional hostility toward Kurdish forces in northern Syria but also from a desire to expand its influence over the maritime area between Syria and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. This territory, occupied by Ankara since 1974 following the Turkish-Cypriot war, remains unrecognized by the international community but is crucial to Erdogan’s regional strategy.
Like Cyprus, Syria holds strategic significance in the Middle East. The island hosts key British military bases in Dhekelia and Akrotiri, which have operated since 1959 following the Zurich Agreement that granted Cypriot independence while preserving British military presence during the Cold War. Additionally, the U.S. and EU view Cyprus as a critical foothold, particularly after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which intensified Western interest in the island due to strong Russian economic ties in real estate, tourism, and banking sectors.
A Strategic Victory for Erdogan
The victory of Islamist militias in Syria grants Turkey privileged access to the Syrian coast, further strengthening the position of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Erdogan can now leverage this advantage in negotiations with the Republic of Cyprus, an EU member supported by the international community, to seek relief from the harsh economic embargo affecting the Turkish part of the island. This embargo has stifled economic development in the region, but the new regional balance may provide Turkey with a critical bargaining tool.
The United States’ 2022 decision to lift the arms embargo on western Cyprus had already signaled a paradigm shift. However, this move was aimed more at countering Russian influence than opposing Ankara. Erdogan, in turn, capitalized on Western hostility toward Putin to bolster support for Islamist militias, seen as a less threatening option than Assad’s regime and its allies.
A Rebalancing in the Middle East
With Assad’s fall and Turkey’s success in Syria, Erdogan now finds himself in a position of strength. Turkey’s military, one of the most powerful in the Middle East alongside Israel’s, benefits from its NATO membership status, making it virtually untouchable on the international stage. This allows Erdogan to maintain Western support despite his controversial backing of Syrian Islamist rebels, who now rely on Turkey as their guarantor of legitimacy.
In this new scenario, Erdogan not only strengthens Turkey’s presence in the Eastern Mediterranean but also positions himself to politically capitalize on this victory, further solidifying Turkey’s role as a key player in future regional negotiations.
Dammit.
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