Myriam Benraad, political scientist and professor of international relations at Schiller International University, analyzes in her reflection note published by the Centre Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement (CF2R) the risks of “de-Assadization” in Syria. Drawing parallels with the controversial “de-Baathification” of post-2003 Iraq, the author highlights how indiscriminate purges and sectarian revenge can undermine a stable and inclusive political transition.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, marked by the recent capture of Damascus by Hay’at Tahrir al-Cham (HTC) and its allies, has reignited debates about political transitions in Middle Eastern countries. The initial euphoria over the so-called “liberation” of the country has quickly given way to a far more complex reality: looting, revenge, and violence against minorities, particularly the Alawite community from which Assad hails. This scenario strongly echoes what happened in Iraq after 2003, with the controversial “de-Baathification” policy following Saddam Hussein’s fall.
The Iraqi Lesson: A Failed Transition
The “de-Baathification” in Iraq, promoted by the United States with the declared aim of dismantling Saddam’s authoritarian power system, resulted in sweeping indiscriminate purges of state structures. Approximately 30,000 Iraqi officials and military personnel were removed, often without concrete evidence of their involvement in crimes, depriving the country of vital expertise in administration, education, and military affairs. This institutional void fueled instability, sectarian violence, and the rise of jihadist groups like ISIS.
Similarly, in Syria, HTC’s “de-Assadization” appears to follow the same script. Persecutions against alleged regime supporters make no distinction between guilty and innocent, particularly targeting the Alawite community and other religious minorities. Videos of summary executions and torture are emerging on social media, raising fears that Syria may fall into an endless cycle of revenge.
Revenge or Justice?
One of the biggest flaws of Iraq’s “de-Baathification” was the approach based on collective guilt. Being a Baath Party member did not necessarily mean subscribing to Saddam’s ideology or being involved in his crimes. The same principle seems to apply in Syria, where many Alawites and public institution members joined the Baath Party out of necessity rather than conviction. However, the new authorities appear determined to ignore this complexity, favoring a logic of revenge over a path of transitional justice.
Ahmed al-Charaa, HTC leader and a key figure in Syria’s transition, initially promised inclusive reconciliation. However, the actions of his forces tell a different story. The indiscriminate purging of institutions and the repression of Alawite protests in Latakia and Tartus suggest that “de-Assadization” risks exacerbating sectarian divisions, fueling further conflicts.
Syria’s Future: Reconstruction or Chaos?
Iraq’s case demonstrates that dismantling state structures without a clear plan for their reconstruction leads to chaos. In Syria, the situation is even more complicated due to the country’s fragmentation and the presence of jihadist actors in power, whose ideological goals starkly contrast with democratic principles.
Rebuilding Syria will require an immense effort to prevent “de-Assadization” from turning into a “de-Alawitization” of the country, leading to the exclusion and marginalization of entire communities. Genuine transitional justice should focus on establishing individual accountability, avoiding mass purges that undermine social cohesion.
Conclusions
Recent history in Iraq and the current situation in Syria show that political transitions based on revenge are doomed to fail. Lasting peace cannot be built on sectarian bloodshed but only through dialogue and inclusion. The international community, already culpably absent in Iraq, must learn from past mistakes to prevent Syria from following the same path.
Syria, Iraq, de-Assadization, de-Baathification, Middle East, political transition, sectarian violence, transitional justice, Bashar al-Assad, Hay’at Tahrir al-Cham, HTC, Alawite community, Iraq war, Saddam Hussein, ISIS, sectarianism, international relations, reconciliation, reconstruction, Middle Eastern politics, institutional void, human rights, justice, Ahmed al-Charaa, Syrian conflict, global politics
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