China’s control of 65% of the global shipbuilding order book represents an unprecedented achievement and a clear signal of how the country is redefining global balances in the maritime economy. With a total of 3,256 ships under construction as of November 2024, boasting a combined cargo capacity of 224 million dwt (deadweight tons), China cements its leadership, marking a 37% growth compared to 2023 and a 72% increase from 2022.
A Dominance Built Over Time
The shipbuilding sector is a crucial indicator of a nation’s industrial and technological capabilities. In the 2000s, the industry was dominated by Japan and South Korea, which jointly accounted for 78% of the global order book. Today, this share has drastically shrunk to 31%, in favor of China. This shift is no accident but the result of a long-term strategy, with Beijing investing heavily in infrastructure, technological innovation, and targeted industrial policies.
China has focused on building modern shipyards, vertically integrating its supply chain, and leveraging strong state support. This has enabled it to compete not only on cost but also on quality, attracting large orders for technologically advanced ships such as state-of-the-art container ships and tankers.
Global Economic Implications
China’s dominance in shipbuilding carries far-reaching economic implications. First, it consolidates China’s position as a hub for global maritime trade, providing the country with a strategic advantage both commercially and geopolitically. Controlling a large share of global ship production means having direct influence over the global supply chain at a time when maritime transport accounts for approximately 90% of world trade.
Secondly, this industrial supremacy reinforces China’s steel and technology industries, creating a virtuous cycle that further stimulates domestic economic growth. The shipbuilding sector connects various industrial sectors: from steel to robotics, electronics, and renewable energy, with a particular focus on the environmental sustainability of new ships.
Decline of Japan and South Korea
The combined market share of Japan and South Korea has fallen from 78% to 31%, reflecting a loss of competitiveness by these two historically dominant countries. Both have been hindered by higher production costs, slower adaptation to new market demands, and a less aggressive strategy compared to China.
However, Japan and South Korea remain leaders in highly specialized segments, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers and cruise ships. Although this niche market is limited, it may provide some resilience in an increasingly China-dominated context.
A Future of Challenges and Opportunities
China’s primacy in shipbuilding is not without challenges. The growing concentration of production capacity in one country raises global concerns about economic security and the resilience of supply chains. Additionally, competition from South Korea, Japan, and emerging players remains fierce, particularly in the segment of eco-friendly, zero-emission ships, where technological innovation will be crucial.
For Western countries, China’s dominance represents another wake-up call about the need to invest in strategic sectors to reduce dependence on Beijing. The European Union and the United States, having largely abandoned large-scale shipbuilding, may need to rethink their industrial policies to counterbalance this dominance.
China’s Seapower and Strategic Ambitions
The enhancement of Chinese seapower is a central element of Beijing’s strategy to establish itself as a global power and safeguard its maritime interests. Through the development of the People’s Liberation Army Navy and the consistent expansion of maritime infrastructure, China is reshaping regional and global geopolitical balances.
Official Chinese documents underscore the necessity of transforming the navy from a coastal defense force into a fleet capable of operating in distant waters. The maritime strategy outlined in China’s White Papers on defense and in President Xi Jinping’s speeches emphasizes the importance of building a strong navy capable of protecting trade routes, ensuring the security of maritime communication lines, and projecting power globally. The “Maritime Silk Road” project, an integral part of the Belt and Road Initiative, plays a crucial role in this strategic vision, securing China’s access to critical ports and infrastructure along major trade routes.
China’s ability to integrate civilian and military technologies, known as the dual-use approach, enables rapid conversion of civilian shipyards for military shipbuilding. This model allows China to develop a modern and diverse naval fleet, including nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, and next-generation destroyers. Strategic assets such as anti-ship ballistic missiles and autonomous platforms further strengthen the operational capabilities of the Chinese navy, positioning it in direct competition with U.S. naval supremacy in the Indo-Pacific.
Geopolitical Impact of China’s Maritime Expansion
China’s growing influence in contested areas like the South China Sea translates into constant pressure on neighboring countries, including Japan, Taiwan, and India. Meanwhile, naval bases built in strategic regions such as Djibouti reinforce Beijing’s presence in distant waters. Controlling trade routes enables China to wield significant influence over countries dependent on its maritime infrastructure, bolstering its position as both an economic and military global power.
China’s approach to maritime dominance goes beyond conventional military strength, incorporating unconventional tools such as the use of paramilitary fishing fleets and the Coast Guard to achieve strategic objectives without provoking direct escalation. This hybrid approach makes China a complex actor to counter, capable of combining diplomacy, economics, and military force to strengthen its geopolitical position.
Conclusion
Chinese seapower is not merely a matter of military might but a cornerstone of Beijing’s integrated strategy to ensure its security, consolidate control over trade routes, and project global influence. This transformation requires other international actors, particularly the United States and its allies, to develop new strategies to counterbalance China’s growing maritime weight.
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