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2024: The Year of Geopolitical Awakening

Author: Sergey Yevgenyevich Naryshkin, Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation (Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki Rossiyskoy Federatsii/SVR)

The current global turmoil, arising from the struggle between the West, which seeks to maintain its supremacy, and new centers of power claiming the right to independent development, is destined to increase. We are witnessing a global restructuring and a geopolitical awakening of nations, peoples, and entire continents striving to free themselves from the so-called “liberal-totalitarian stupor.”

The fundamental conflict between the “old” and “new” world, latent since the end of the Cold War, has intensified with the start of the special military operation in Ukraine. The globalist and anti-humanist policy of Washington and its allies is being rejected by more non-Western states embracing multipolarity and a traditional world view, increasing risks of instability and chaos in international politics.

The current dynamics suggest a revolutionary situation: the United States, weakened, can no longer maintain its leadership, while other countries no longer accept the Western dictate. The Euro-Atlantic states, to avoid a radical collapse of the current global “superstructure,” might create controlled chaos, destabilizing key regions and creating tactical coalitions under Western control.

However, the United States and its allies are losing the ability to realize their destructive plans. Responsible global actors like Russia, China, India, and many others are uniting to oppose these adventures and autonomously resolve crises, as in Syria. Even the closest allies of the United States are seeking to diversify their ties due to the inability of the United States to ensure security.

In 2024, the Arab world will remain at the center of the struggle for a new world order. The disintegration of globalist ambitions is clearly manifested here: the invasion of Iraq, the “Arab Spring,” the war in Syria, the rise of ISIS, and Sunni-Shiite tensions are examples. Western policies, exclusively oriented towards domination, are crumbling due to the real awakening of the peoples of the Middle East.

The multipolar world is now a reality. Events such as the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the joining of BRICS by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, and the return of Syria to the “Arab family,” are undeniable facts.

Russia welcomes these developments and will contribute to their success, but what is fundamental is the prevailing attitude in the Arab world towards the resolution of conflicts and the establishment of constructive and predictable relationships.

Similar processes are observed in Latin America, which has traditionally been considered the “backyard” of the United States. Here too, a demand for independent integration structures is emerging. CELAC, for example, is an organization in which the United States and Canada do not participate.

As for the Euro-Atlantic bloc, 2024 will see an increase in public and political disunity on various issues, from support for Ukraine to the promotion of the LGBT agenda. Slovakia, with the victory of the nationalist SMER-SSD party, indicates a change in progress. The upcoming elections in the West, both European and American presidential ones, will take place in a context of strong opposition between supporters of globalism and proponents of realism in foreign policy and traditional values.

It is expected that the United States and its allies will continue to accuse Russia, China, and other states of increasing internal tensions in their countries. However, in the Eurasian area, a new reality is emerging, as demonstrated by the return of Crimea to Russia and the reintegration of the people’s republics of Lugansk and Donetsk, as well as the regions of Kherson and Zaporozhye. Russia will strengthen its unifying role as the center of the main integration projects of the continent.

Important alliances are emerging between Russia and its allies and partners from the CIS, CSTO, and SCO, as well as the “Great Eurasian Partnership.” These structures are distinguished from Western blocs by their not being against third countries and for their commitment to creating a fair world order.

The BRICS, with the entry of six new states, have the potential to build a fair and democratic architecture of international relations. Unlike the G7, dominated by the United States, the BRICS represent an alliance of equal and independent powers.

In the United States and its allies, pressure on Russia and other states that refuse to adhere to neoliberal values will continue. These actions will include attacks within international organizations and ad hoc formats, with the goal of dismantling post-World War II governance institutions.

In the emerging multipolar world, the “rotten product” of the globalist order is losing appeal even among Western politicians who do not intend to defend the narrow interests of the Anglo-Saxon elites. The global awakening is underway and irreversible.

Russia must fully awaken from the liberal influence of the 1990s and return to its roots. Russia is a unique civilization-country with a thousand-year history that cannot be forgotten or betrayed. For this reason, a monument to Felix Edmundovich Dzerzhinsky, the founder of the Russian foreign intelligence services, will be erected in Yasenevo, symbolizing determination and loyalty to the idea of building a new and just world.

Note: This article appeared in its entirety in the December 2023 issue of the magazine Razvedchik, published by the Charitable Foundation for the Social Protection of Foreign Intelligence Agents and Veterans of the Russian Federation (KGB, SVR), and was translated into French by CF2R. https://cf2r.org/actualite/2024-lannee-du-reveil-geopolitique/.

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